Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Abstract
The Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the scientific literature relevant to climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. The report recognizes the interactions of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies, and integrates across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences. It emphasizes how efforts in adaptation and in reducing greenhouse gas emissions can come together in a process called climate resilient development, which enables a liveable future for biodiversity and humankind. The IPCC is the leading body for assessing climate change science. IPCC reports are produced in comprehensive, objective and transparent ways, ensuring they reflect the full range of views in the scientific literature. Novel elements include focused topical assessments, and an atlas presenting observed climate change impacts and future risks from global to regional scales. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
... However, following the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change 6th assessment report, nitrous oxide has a global warming potential with a 100 year horizon 273 times larger than carbon dioxide. Agriculture, forestry and land use sector contributed 22% of the total global GHG emissions (IPCC, 2022). Because of the large amounts of GHG emissions, there is an increasing demand for GHG emission reduction for every sector of the economy, including agriculture (IPCC, 2022). ...
... Agriculture, forestry and land use sector contributed 22% of the total global GHG emissions (IPCC, 2022). Because of the large amounts of GHG emissions, there is an increasing demand for GHG emission reduction for every sector of the economy, including agriculture (IPCC, 2022). ...
... Agricultural soils are the primary source of anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions (Wang et al., 2018). Soil emissions due to synthetic fertilizer applications to soils accounted for 0.75% of the total global GHG emissions in 2019 (IPCC, 2022). N 2 O emissions from manure management contributed 5% to global greenhouse gas emissions within the livestock production chains, while feed production accounted for 9.8% in 2015 (FAO, 2023). ...
CONTEXT: Worldwide greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reached 59 Gt of CO2eq in 2019 and agricultural soils are the primary source of N2O emissions. Life cycle assessments (LCA) have been successful in assessing GHG from agricultural systems. However, no review and harmonization attempt has been focused on soil N2O emissions, despite the need to improve LCA methodologies for assessing GHG in agricultural LCA.
OBJECTIVE: We therefore undertook a review and harmonization of existing methods to account for soil N2O emissions in LCA of agricultural systems and products: i) to compare current methods used in LCA; ii) to identify advantages and iii) disadvantages of each method in LCA; iv) to suggest recommendations for LCA of agricultural systems; v) to identify research needs and potential methodological developments to account for soil N2O emissions in the LCA of agricultural systems. In this paper, we consider as soil N2O emissions, those originated from soils in relation to fertilisers (organic and manufactured), crop residues, land use/land management change, grassland management, manure and slurry applications and from grazing animals.
METHODS: The approach adopted was based on two anonymous expert surveys and a series of expert workshops (n = 21) to define general and specific criteria to review LCA methods for GHG emissions used in LCA of agricultural systems. A broad list of keywords and search criteria was used as the research involved GHG
assessment in agricultural LCA. Reviewed papers and methodology were then assessed by LCA and soil N2O emission experts (n = 14).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: >25,000 scientific papers and reports were identified, 1175 were screened, 263 included in the final review and 31 scientific papers were related to soil N2O emissions. The results showed that a high level of accuracy corresponded to a low level of applicability and vice versa, following the assessment
framework developed in this work through participatory approaches.
SIGNIFICANCE: The choice of LCA methods, critical for high quality LCA of agricultural systems, should be based on the assessment objectives, data availability and expertise of the LCA practitioner. However, it is preferable to use DNDC model after calibration and validation or direct field measurements, considering system effects. When necessary data are lacking, IPCC tier 2 methodology where available should be used, otherwise 2019 IPCC Tier 1
methodology. This LCA method development should be synchronous with improvements of quantification methods and the assessment of a wider range of agricultural management practices and systems.
... Credit availability is a significant factor in adopting different technologies, and smallholder farmers should be encouraged to apply for low-interest loans for resource-intensive technologies. To further assist farmers in adjusting to changing climatic circumstances, research, development, and dissemination of suitable and reasonably priced technologies are also necessary (IPCC, 2022;Kabir et al., 2021;Saab, 2022;Theis et al., 2018). Technology deployment is strongly linked to other types of capital, particularly human capital, as the IPCC (2022) emphasizes. ...
... The primary constraints identified by respondents were financial constraints, water shortage for irrigation, absence of timely input supply, and low awareness regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. Therefore, improving smallholders' adaptive capability and addressing the causes of vulnerability would be mutually beneficial (IPCC, 2014(IPCC, , 2022. It is essential to select methods that will boost land productivity while mitigating the effects of climate change at the context-specific level. ...
... It is essential to select methods that will boost land productivity while mitigating the effects of climate change at the context-specific level. As workable modifications, we advise expanding non-farm sources of income (Adeagbo et al., 2021)., securing affordable credit access (Adeagbo et al., 2021;Antwi-Agyei et al., 2021;IPCC, 2022;Ojo & Baiyegunhi, 2020), implementing integrated watershed management (Adeagbo et al., 2021), improving the quality of extension service (Adeagbo et al., 2021;Antwi-Agyei et al., 2021;Hirpha et al., 2020), expanding small-scale irrigation (Alemu & Dessale, 2022), and introducing short-maturing and drought resistant crop varieties. In doing so, the integration and collaboration of different actors like farmers, researchers, and policymakers are crucial to enhancing the effectiveness of climate change adaptation initiatives. ...
In Ethiopia's drought-prone regions, vulnerable smallholder rural communities' farming systems are seriously threatened by climate change and extreme weather events. It is crucial to understand the adaptations of these farmers and the factors that influence their adaptation strategies to design effective strategies and interventions for agricultural development and food security. The study examines the adaptation responses of smallholder farmers and the factors that influence their adaptation strategies. Using a questionnaire and key informant interviews, a cross-sectional survey research design was employed to collect data from 349 randomly selected smallholder farmers. Data analysis used percentages, a Weighted Adaptation Index (WAI), a Coping Strategy Index (CSI), and a binary logistic regression model. Climate change and variability manifest in the study area in the form of irregular patterns of rainfall (86.8%), drying-up of swampy areas (84%), reduction in the volume of rivers and streams (80.8%), unforeseen human and animal diseases (80.8%) and increase of drought incidences (80.2%). The most common coping strategies employed are selling assets (1.9), temporal migration (1.7), sending family members abroad for remittance (1.6), food aid (1.6), and borrowing from relatives (1.6). The study uncovered that the farmers utilized the most adaptation strategies of contour ploughing (2.38), water diversion (2.12), crop rotation (1.87), altering the farm calendar (1.72), on-farm livelihood diversification (1.66), using improved seed (1.59), using short maturing and drought-resistant crop varieties (1.34). Variations in educational level, age, family size, agroecology, cropping season, and access to weather information were the major determinant factors for undertaking adaptation measures in the district. Financial constraints (97.4%), shortage of water for irrigation (97.1%), absence of timely input supply (96.8%), and low awareness regarding climate change impacts and adaptation (96%) did respondents identify the significant constraints. Initiatives to assist smallholder farmers to better cope with climate change-induced extreme events, like the construction of reliable irrigation schemes, non-farm livelihood alternatives, livelihood diversification, and timely information, should be more embedded in the local context of farmers' decision-making.
... Ocean is warming and observations confirm that sea temperature accelerated rapidly in recent decades (Cheng et al., 2019;IPCC, 2022). Temperature increase and consequential oceanographic changes are impacting marine life in several ways, including massive displacement of species from their historical areas (Kleisner et al., 2016;Baudron et al., 2020). ...
... In particular, understanding future changes in the spatial distribution of marine species helps to define strategies to cope with seemingly inevitable changes and to prepare adaptive solutions in fisheries management (Bahri et al., 2021). In this context, semi-enclosed basins such as the Mediterranean Sea are particularly vulnerable to climate change (MedECC, 2020;IPCC, 2022) where reduced migration opportunities for certain species are exacerbating competitions and local extinction can be induced by climate change (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2014). ...
... Given recent improvements in Copernicus Marine Service products, a second source of uncertainty regards the quality levels characterizing the physical and biogeochemical data used in the model. Results from model reanalysis and future scenario projections are affected by many uncertainties (see Richon et al., 2019;IPCC, 2022;Reale et al., 2022). Progresses in quality of the Mediterranean Sea CMS products are continuous and a new reanalysis at higher resolution (increasing from 1/ 16 to 1/24 of degree) has been recently made available (Cossarini et al., 2021). ...
Predicting range shifts of marine species under different CO2 emission scenarios is of paramount importance to understand spatial potential changes in a context of climate change and to ensure appropriate management, in particular in areas where resources are critical to fisheries. Important tools which use environmental variables to infer range limits and species habitat suitability are the species distribution models or SDMs. In this work, we develop an ensemble species distribution model (e-SDM) to assess past, present and future distributions under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 of nine demersal species and hotspot areas for their two life stages (adult and juvenile) in the Adriatic and Western Ionian Seas in four time windows (1999-2003, 2014-2018, 2031-2035 and 2046-2050). The e-SDM has been developed using three different models (and sub-models), i.e. (i) generalized additive models (GAM), (ii) generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), (iii) gradient boosting machine (GBM), through the combination of density data in terms of numbers of individuals km² and environmental variables. Then, we have determined the changes in the aggregation hotspots and distributions. Finally, we assess gains and losses areas (i.e. occupation area) in the future climate change scenario as new potential range shifts for the nine species and their life stages. The results show that densities of some key commercial species, such as Merluccius merluccius (European hake), Mullus barbatus (red mullet), and Lophius budegassa (anglerfish) will be shifting northwards.
... The 2022 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) paints a dark picture of the future of life on earth, characterised by ecosystem collapse, species extinction, and climate hazards such as heatwaves and floods (1) . These are all linked to physical and mental health problems, with direct and indirect consequences of increased morbidity and mortality. ...
... As such, to reconstruct a snapshot of the ocean environment, measurements made by a few, dispersed sensors hundreds of kilometers apart need to be interpolated. With ongoing, rapid changes in ocean conditions, it is essential to increase the spatial coverage of oceanographic sampling, especially in the polar regions such as the Gulf of Alaska (GoA), where the effects of climate change are expected to be more pronounced 4 . ...
Animal-borne tags are effective instruments for collecting ocean data and can be used to fill spatial gaps in the observing network. We deployed the first conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD) satellite tags on the dorsal fin of salmon sharks (Lamna ditropis) to demonstrate the potential of sharks to monitor essential ocean variables and oceanographic features in the Gulf of Alaska. Over 1360 km and 36 days in the summer of 2015, the salmon shark collected 56 geolocated, temperature-salinity profiles. The shark swam through a plume of anomalously salty water that originated from the “Blob” and encountered several mesoscale eddies, whose subsurface properties were altered by the marine heatwave. We demonstrate that salmon sharks have the potential to serve as submesoscale-resolving oceanographic platforms and substantially increase the spatial coverage of observations in the Gulf of Alaska.
... The Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) are a set of scenarios developed by the scientific community to explore possible future developments in the global economy, society, and environment. These scenarios were adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) in 2021 to inform policymakers about the potential impacts of different climate change pathways (IPCC, 2022). These scenarios consider various socioeconomic factors, such as population, urban density, education, land use, and wealth, to determine emission levels and the corresponding Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP). ...
Accurately predicting carbon‐climate feedbacks relies on understanding the environmental factors regulating soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and dynamics. Here, we employed a microbial ecological model (MEND), driven by downscaled output data from six Earth system models under two Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5) scenarios, to simulate long‐term soil biogeochemical processes. We aim to analyze the responses of soil microbial and carbon‐nitrogen (C‐N) processes to changes in environmental factors, including litter input (L), soil moisture (W) and temperature (T), and soil pH, in a broadleaf forest (BF) and a pine forest (PF). For the entire soil layer in both forests, we found that, compared to the baseline period of 2009–2020, the mean SOC during 2081–2100 increased by 40.9%–90.6% under the L or T change scenarios, versus 5.2%–31.0% under the W change scenario. However, soil moisture emerged as a key regulator of SOC, MBC and inorganic N dynamics in the topsoil of BF and PF. For example, W change led to SOC gain of 5.5%–37.2%, compared to the SOC loss of 15.5%–18.0% under L or T scenario. Additionally, a further reduction in soil pH by 0.2 units in the BF, representing the acid rain effect, significantly resulted in an additional SOC gain by 14.2%–21.3%, compared to the LTW (simultaneous changes in the three factors) scenario. These results indicate that the results derived solely from topsoil may not be extrapolated to the entire soil profile. Overall, this study significantly advances our comprehension of how different environmental factors impact the dynamics of SOC and the implications they have for climate change.
... In the last decade, the ocean has kept on taking up a near-constant proportion of CO 2 emissions from human activities, resulting in profound, long-lasting changes in oceanographic features, among which increases in temperature are the most pervasive. As a consequence, most marine ecosystems in the globe have readjusted their structure and function to increasing temperatures, which for many NE Atlantic ecosystems has implied ecological regime shifts at various levels, from population (Goikoetxea and Irigoien, 2013;Cabrero et al., 2019) and community (Auber et al., 2015;Hidalgo et al., 2022a,b;Tsimara et al., 2021) to ecosystem level (Möllmann and Diekmann, 2012;Alheit et al., 2019;Bode et al., 2020;IPCC et al., 2022). An important cue of climate change is the species tracking of their suitable temperature regimes which ultimately affects the width, depth and latitude of a community's coverage. ...
Climate change is triggering shifts in species distribution eventually altering communities' biogeography. The composition of a community in terms of its species' ecological niche informs of a community's response to environmental conditions and impacts, which is central for a timely conservation. While the thermal niche has been widely explored, given it offers a direct link of warming effects on an assemblage, acknowledging the multivariate nature of a species niche can provide relevant insights of the reorganizations taking place at a community-level. We studied the mean and variance of 10 ecological traits at the community level in two regional ecosystems in the temperate East-Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea, characterized by a distinct exposure to warming. Our findings revealed major temporal changes and spatial structuring in the traits and ranges explored over the last decades. Apart from confirming the expected general poleward, deep-ward shift, our results highlighted a widening of thermal and latitudinal ranges, possibly related to a 'flexibilitation' of the communities in a context of global change. In addition, temporal patterns reflected how communities have adjusted around regime shifts known in both areas. Regional differences arose concerning the variance of depth ranges and area of distribution, as well as to the global evolution of the communities, which we argue are consequence of their different geographical features and ecological history. The comparison of two large mul-titaxon assemblages has disclosed a broad-scale motion of response to warming in the bentho-demersal domain. We expect this study will contribute to the understanding of the multivariate nature of global-change effects on marine fauna, which ultimately informs adaptive management.
... Since the year 2000, China has been one of the worst-hit countries in the world on account of natural disasters. In recent years, climate change has altered the state of hydrological cycle, aggravating water resource problems (IPCC, 2007;IPCC, 2013) and bringing more extreme compound disasters (Chen et al., 2017). Therefore, with the rapid development of global warming along with humidi cation, it is of immense signi cance to mitigate the adverse impacts of compound ood disasters by comprehensively considering the impacts of climate scenarios and models, predicting and diagnosing compound ood based on multi-class Copula functions and considering the intra-correlation of variables, and strengthening the research on the spatial-temporal pattern of external driving factors (Xu et al., 2009). ...
Changing climatic conditions have escalated the risk of compound disaster, and there remains a scarcity of quantitative research at river basin scale. An integrated research framework is proposed in this study to quantitatively analyze and assess the risk of future compound flood in Xijiang River Basin based on external driving factor and internal variables. Under this framework, a multi-model ensemble of 10 preferred CMIP6 GCMs is carried out based on statistical downscaling and Bayesian weighted average method, and the multi-scale variation characteristics of precipitation and runoff during 2020 ~ 2099 are analyzed based on the ensemble data. Combined with univariate and multivariate trend analysis considering intra-correlation, the multi-class copula functions are utilized to estimate the joint probability and return period of compound flood. The results show that: 1) The precipitation and runoff increase by 8.25%, 14.5%, and 34.05%, 55.18% respectively compare to the baseline period under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, with both displaying an increasing trend at rates of 1.03%/10a, 2.66%/10a, and 2.74%/10a, 4.62%/10a on the interdecadal scale under the two scenarios, respectively. 2) The internal variables of the compound flood represented by the annual maximum peak flow (AMPF) and the annual consecutive maximum 7-day flood volume (AM7dFV) present a significant increasing trend under the two scenarios, but the annual maximum precipitation (AMPre) of the external driving factor does not show a significant trend while the annual total precipitation (ATPre) of the external driving factor increases significantly under both scenarios. It is noteworthy that both the internal variables and the external driving factors of compound flood show significant increases in the multivariate analysis. 3) The joint variable of compound flood demonstrates a substantially increasing trend under both scenarios, along with an increase in the magnitude of the once-in-a-century flood. Discounting the intra-correlation between multivariate, the degree of disaster would be underestimated.
... The average for the whole growth season for ponds at this latitude is 17°C (Nilsson-Örtman et al., 2012). The difference of 3°C between our treatments fits within the range of predicted increase in temperature within the next 100 years (IPCC, 2022). ...
Identifying how temperature and food resources affect interactions between species is important for understanding how climate change will shape community structure in the future. Here, we tested how temperature and resource density affect survival and growth in the larval stage of two coexisting odonates: the damselfly Lestes sponsa and the dragonfly Sympetrum vulgatum. We performed a laboratory experiment at two temperatures (21 and 24°C) with two resource densities. We estimated the timing of egg hatching of individual egg clutches and thereafter the larval growth rate‐, survival‐ and size‐mediated priority effects under interspecific conditions. Eggs of both species hatched slightly faster at 24°C, and S. vulgatum eggs started hatching approximately 1 day earlier than L. sponsa eggs. However, this earlier hatching did not result in a size‐mediated priority effect, that is, a higher predation on the later hatching L. sponsa. Nevertheless, L. sponsa larvae were significantly larger than S. vulgatum at hatching. Growth rate and survival were significantly higher: (1) at 24°C compared with 21°C, (2) at high compared with low‐resource density and (3) in L. sponsa compared with S. vulgatum. Several significant interaction effects between resource density and temperature and between temperature and species were found. At high temperature, L. sponsa had a higher growth rate than S. vulgatum, but no difference in growth rate between species was found at low temperature. Additionally, a high‐resource density resulted in a higher growth rate in both species, but only under high temperature. There was a negative relationship between growth rate and survival in both species, suggesting that the higher growth rate of larvae was to some degree driven by intraguild predation and/or cannibalism. Our results imply that resource levels interact with temperature to affect interactions between the species.
... Parris and other authors [5] described four global mean SLR scenarios (Highest, Intermediate-High, Intermediate-Low, and Lowest) for assessing potential vulnerabilities and impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also released global mean sea level rise scenarios with its 6th Assessment Report (AR6) [27]. The NASA Sea Level Projection Tool, which visualizes sea level projections, was developed based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 6th Assessment Report [28]. ...
As a consequence of global climate change, sea level rise (SLR) presents notable risks to both urban and natural areas located near coastlines. For developing effective strategies to mitigate and adapt to these risks, it is essential to evaluate the potential impacts of SLR in coastal areas. While substantial research has been conducted on mapping the broad-scale impacts of SLR based on scenarios of Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL), consideration of regional scenarios, systematic classification, and distinct stages of SLR have been largely overlooked. This gap is significant because SLR impacts vary by region and by the level of SLR, so adaptations, planning, and decision-making must be adapted to local conditions. This paper aims to precisely identify the landscape and urban morphology changes caused by the impact of SLR for each foot of elevation increase based on remote sensing technologies, focusing on St. Johns County, Florida, and Chatham County, Georgia. These two counties are both situated along the southeastern coastline of the United States but with completely different urban forms due to distinct historical and cultural developments. Regional forecasting SLR scenarios covering the period from 2020 to 2100 were utilized to assess the landscape transformation and urban changes, incorporating selected landscape and urban metrics to calculate quantitative data for facilitating comparative analyses. This study investigated gradual alterations in urban morphology and green infrastructure both individually and in combination with the effect on wetlands due to SLR. The mapping outcomes of this research were generated by employing comprehensive remote sensing data. The findings of this research indicated that, when the sea level rose to 3 feet, the wetlands would experience notable alterations, and the level of fragmentation in urban built areas would progressively increase, causing most of the metric data to exhibit a pronounced decline or increase.
... Over recent decades, rising global mean temperatures (IPCC, 2021) have brought about directional shifts in phenology across a range of taxa (Cohen et al., 2018;Roslin et al., 2021;Thackeray et al., 2016). For many organisms, survival or successful reproduction can depend on timing a stage in their life history such that it is synchronised with the timing of another species. ...
Climate change has the potential to disrupt phenological synchrony among interacting species that vary in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. The phenological synchrony observed between winter moth Operophtera brumata caterpillars and oak leafing in spring has become an emblematic test case of this phenomenon, with caterpillars seemingly advancing their phenology more than their host-plant. However, work on this trophic interaction—and on phenological mismatch more widely—routinely overlooks the potential for trophic generalism to buffer the negative effects of mismatch. In the largest study of its kind—using over 3500 individuals reared from egg to pupa—I tested the performance of winter moth caterpillars from four UK populations across nine host-plant species, and considered how adaptation to locally abundant host-plants may modulate performance in different populations. I found that caterpillars survive and grow well across a range of host-plant species, with some evidence of a host-plant by population interaction in performance. Contrary to widespread assumptions, oak seems a relatively poor host-plant species. Occupying a broad trophic niche may help consumers like the winter moth exploit a narrow phenological niche, whereby phenological variation among host-plant species buffers them against asynchrony with any one particular host-plant species. Determining the significance of trophic generalism in the ecology of consumers is a crucial first step towards assessing its role as a potential buffering mechanism and, hence, evaluating the true threat posed by mismatch.
... The energy transition is an urgent need faced by various industries, primarily the automotive industry. We, as a society, have the obligation to adopt economic and sustainable solutions for the environment and the fight against climate change, which is increasingly close to becoming irreversible [2]. ...
The link between the world of communication and the world of racing is provided by telemetry systems in electric racing cars. These systems send real-time data about the vehicle’s behavior and systems to enable informed decisions during the race. The aim of this research was to integrate telemetry into the battery bank of a racing electric vehicle to find the optimal values of current and voltage that optimize the charging process, thus improving the vehicle’s performance in competition using Response Surface Analysis. Particularly, the telemetry system consisted of an Arduino Mega, a digital wattmeter, and temperature sensors, all installed in the vehicle. Once the telemetry data was obtained, a response surface design was adapted with current, voltage, and temperature as factors, varying from low to high values, with the objective function being to minimize the battery’s charging time. Applying the response surface methodology and the steepest descent algorithm, it was found that all factors significantly affect the charging time, with the minimum charge time being 6961 seconds, obtained with a current of 2.4 amps and voltages of 50.5 volts and 43.6 volts.
This review discusses the recent advancements in cost-effective fermentation methods for producing bacterial nanocellulose (BC) from food and agro-industrial waste. Achieving economical cell culture media is crucial for large-scale BC production, requiring nutrient-rich media at low cost to maximize cellulose yield. Various pretreatment methods, including chemical, physical, and biological approaches, are stated to break down waste into accessible molecules for cellulose-producing bacteria. Additionally, strategies such as dynamic bioreactors and genetic engineering methods are investigated to enhance BC production. This review also focuses on the environmental impact assessment and updated application challenges of BC such as medical applications, energy storage/electronics, filtration membranes, and food packaging. By providing insights from the recent literature findings, this review highlights the innovative potential and challenges in economically and efficiently producing BC from waste streams.
Our study utilizes a global reanalysis of near-surface daily air temperature data spanning the years from 1949 to 2019 to construct climate networks. By employing community detection for each year, we reveal the evolving community structure of the climate network within the context of global warming. Our findings indicate significant changes in measures such as network modularity and the number of communities over the past 30 years. Notably, the community structure of the climate network has undergone a discernible transition since the early 1980s. We attribute this transition to the substantial increase in isolated nodes since the 1980s, primarily concentrated in equatorial ocean regions. Additionally, we demonstrate that nodes experiencing amplified isolation tend to diminish connectivity with other nodes globally, particularly those within the same oceanic basin, while showing a significant strengthening of connections with the Eurasian and North African continents. We deduce that the mechanism driving amplified isolation in the climate network may be comprehended through the weakening of tropical circulations, such as the Hadley cell and Walker circulation, in response to increasing greenhouse gases.
Appropriate rural domestic waste treatment is crucial for advancing low-carbon development in rural areas. In China, incineration power and on-site landfilling are the primary technologies for rural waste treatment. This study follows IPCC guidelines to explore various scenarios and concludes that incineration power generally results in lower carbon emissions compared to on-site landfilling. Notably, the scenario that includes pre-sorting of non-combustible and food waste for incineration, combined with supplying the generated electricity to the North China Power Grid, yields the lowest carbon emissions. Furthermore, on-site landfilling becomes a more carbon-friendly option only if the distance to incineration facilities exceeds 833.8 km, making it a viable rural domestic waste treatment in the less densely populated areas of northwestern and southwestern China. Conversely, the more densely populated eastern and central regions, with their higher availability of incineration plants, are better suited to transporting rural domestic waste towards centralized incineration power plants for treatment. Compared to the current status of rural domestic waste treatment, applying centralized incineration power with pre-sorting non-combustible waste has the potential to reduce carbon emissions by 2040.14 ~ 6787.05 × 10⁴ Mt CO2eq/yr, with the central region witnessing the most significant reduction. Although sorting food waste before incineration can further enhance the carbon reduction potential, landfilling the separated food waste could result in higher overall carbon emissions than incinerating it directly. Thus, optimizing waste sorting before incineration and developing low-carbon techniques for food waste treatment in rural areas are essential steps to maximize the carbon emissions reduction potential of incineration power system.
Graphical Abstract
Vulnerability evaluation plays a key role in risk assessment and reduction and is essential for defining strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In dealing with the safeguarding of cultural heritage at risk, we are still far from adopting and applying an agreed methodology for vulnerability assessment. With the aim to support practitioners, heritage managers, and policy and decision makers to undertake actions that address the protection of cultural heritage at risk, the methodology set up in the framework of the Interreg Central Europe STRENCH is illustrated and discussed here. Based on three major requirements (susceptibility, exposure, and resilience) and a continuous consultation with local stakeholders, the proposed methodology is applicable for evaluating the vulnerability of built heritage and cultural landscape exposed to hydrometeorological hazards, such as heavy rains, floods, and droughts. The results obtained through its validation on 15 case studies from seven Central European regions are shown to underline the strengths and limitations of the methodological approach. Iterative consultation with local stakeholders was fundamental for the definition of the criteria/subcriteria and related values for the assessment of the requirements. Application to further sites in other contexts would surely contribute to strengthening the reliability of the methodological approach.
Chinese cities are pursuing an energy transition to decouple energy-related carbon emissions (ERCEs) from economic growth. Despite numerous studies focusing on the factors influencing carbon emissions, few have quantitatively analyzed their respective contribution rates, thus leaving a gap in effectively guiding policies. This study took 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) as the study area. The decoupling between ERCEs and economic growth was analyzed during 2000–2020, and the contribution rates of different factors were explored. The results showed that the total ERCEs increased from 413.40 million to 1265.86 million tons during 2000–2020, increasing by over three times. Coal and oil were the dominant energy sources in most cities, but natural gas consumption increased from 0.15% to 5.96%. Moreover, 14 cities showed a decoupling status, indicating a certain win–win situation between economic growth and ERCE reduction. Economic growth greatly increased ERCEs, with its contribution rate ranging from 114.65% to 493.27% during 2000–2020. On the contrary, energy structure and energy intensity both contributed to reducing ERCEs in most cities, and their maximum contribution rates reached −32.29% and −449.13%, respectively, which were the main forces for the win–win situation. Finally, carbon reduction proposals are put forward, which provide theoretical support for achieving the “Double Carbon” goal in the YRD.
Challenge 5: Unlock ocean-based solutions to climate change.
Enhance understanding of the ocean-climate nexus and generate knowledge and solutions to mitigate, adapt and build resilience to the effects of climate change across all geographies and at all scales, and to improve services including predictions for the ocean, climate and weather.
The adoption of agricultural water interventions for climate change adaptation has been slow and limited despite their established efficacy and benefits. While several studies have identified socio-economic, biophysical, technological and institutional factors that influence adoption, psychological factors have often been overlooked. This study examines the socio-economic and psychological factors, using RANAS behavioral model, that influence the adoption of agricultural water interventions in the semi-arid region of Saurashtra in India. Two contrasting and dominating agricultural water interventions in the area: drip irrigation and borewells are evaluated. Despite subsidies being available for drip irrigation systems, the adoption rate remains low (~16% adopting rate) compared to borewells (~ 24.5% adoption) with no subsidies reflecting farmer’s preference for supply augmentation measures over demand management. Incorporating psychological factors in the analysis improved the explanatory power of the logistic model by almost threefold, underscoring the significance of psychological factors in explaining farmers' adoption decisions. Based on the logistic model, major factors determining farmers adoption behaviour identified are farmer’s perceived ability, risk preference and positive beliefs about the technologies along with socio-economic (e.g., land size) and biophysical factors (e.g., proximity to water). The study recommends a multi-pronged approach to increase the adoption of interventions, including augmenting subsidies with efforts on extension services, post-adoption services, training, and awareness campaigns to build farmers' capacity and raise awareness.
Objetivo: conocer el estado actual de la investigación sobre la evaluación de Huella de Carbono (HC) del café y su cadena de valor. Metodología: se realizó una revisión sistematizada de literatura procedente de bases de datos bibliográficos internacionales, identificando cinco aspectos; 1) lugar de evaluación, 2) alcance de la evaluación, 3) metodología empleada, 4) resultado de la HC y 5) unidad funcional de medida considerada. Resultados: se revisaron 16 artículos de 16 países, evaluando distintos alcances de la cadena productiva del café. Se encontró la aplicación de seis diferentes metodologías, incluyendo normativas internacionales y softwares especializados. La HC calculada oscila entre los 0.12 kg/CO2eq y los 14.61 kg/CO2eq según alcance de la investigación en la cadena productiva del café. Limitaciones: escaso acervo de publicaciones obtenidas en el proceso de búsqueda sistematizada. Conclusiones: se puntualiza la necesidad de incrementar la investigación sobre el tema en zonas productoras de baja escala, ya que la mayoría de las metodologías y aplicaciones se enfocaron en áreas donde se concentra la producción y tecnificación del grano, dejando de lado a otras zonas productoras que requieren atención respecto a sus procesos productivos.
Biochar, an organic, porous, and carbon-rich material originating from biomass via pyrolysis, showcases compelling attributes and intrinsic performances. Its appeal as a reinforcement material for biocomposites, as well as its auspicious electrical properties, has gained more attention, and makes biochar a versatile candidate for applications ranging from energy storage to catalytic devices. This scientific review undertakes a comprehensive exploration of biochar, spanning production methodologies, physicochemical intricacies, and critical process parameters. The focus of this paper extends to optimization strategies for biochar properties tailored to specific applications, with a dedicated inquiry into diverse production methods and activation strategies. This review’s second phase delves into a meticulous analysis of key properties within biochar-based composites, emphasizing limitations and unique performance characteristics crucial for diverse applications. By synthesizing a substantial body of research, this review aims to catalyze future investigations by pinpointing areas that demand attention in upcoming experiments, ultimately emphasizing the profound potential of biochar-based materials across technical and scientific domains.
Economic evaluations aim to compare the costs and the results of health strategies to guide the public decision-making process. Cost estimation is, thus, a cornerstone of this approach. At present, few national evaluation agencies recommend incorporating the cost of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from healthcare actions into the calculation of healthcare costs. Our main goal is to describe and discuss the methodology for integrating the cost of GHG emissions into the field of applied economic evaluations. To estimate this cost, three steps are required: (1) identifying and quantifying the physical flows linked to the production and management of the outputs of healthcare interventions, (2) estimating the quantity of GHG that can be attributed to each physical flow, and (3) valuing these GHG emissions in monetary terms. Integrating the cost of GHG emissions into the calculation of the costs of healthcare interventions is both useful and relevant from a perspective of collective intergenerational well-being. This approach has been made possible thanks to the existence of accounting and monetary valuation methods for emissions. Agencies specialized in health economic evaluations could take up this issue to resolve ongoing questions, thus providing researchers with a methodological framework and public decision-makers with some key insights.
The shortage of decades‐long continuous measurements of ecosystem processes limits our understanding of how changing climate impacts forest ecosystems. We used continuous eddy‐covariance and hydrometeorological data over 2002–2022 from a young Douglas‐fir stand on Vancouver Island, Canada to assess the long‐term trend and interannual variability in evapotranspiration ( ET ) and transpiration ( T ). Collectively, annual T displayed a decreasing trend over the 21 years with a rate of 1% yr ⁻¹ , which is attributed to the stomatal downregulation induced by rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Similarly, annual ET also showed a decreasing trend since evaporation stayed relatively constant. Variability in detrended annual ET was mostly controlled by the average soil water storage during the growing season (May–October). Though the duration and intensity of the drought did not increase, the drought‐induced decreases in T and ET showed an increasing trend. This pattern may reflect the changes in forest structure, related to the decline in the deciduous understory cover during the stand development. These results suggest that the water‐saving effect of stomatal regulation and water‐related factors mostly determined the trend and variability in ET , respectively. This may also imply an increase in the limitation of water availability on ET in young forests, associated with the structural and compositional changes related to forest growth.
Defining procedural processes to support the involvement and empowerment of citizens, the main target of climate change, in order to integrate them into the holistic process of adaptation to extreme events is nowadays an extremely topical issue. Research is working towards the progressive standardisation of this process. The paper focuses on the outcomes of research on integrating the participatory approach into a methodology for climate proofing of the urban environment. The research results are include directions for increasing resilience through a cyclic step-by-step process for planning, prevention and management of the effects of disasters, centred on the involvement of different stakeholders, as well as the outcomes of the experimentation of such a process on three public housing (ERP) neighbourhoods in Rome.
The selection of Global Climate Models (GCMs) based on their ability to represent precipitation patterns of a region is required for hydrological climate change impact studies to address time and computational constraints. Generally, the selection of GCMs is determined based on their ability to reproduce observed climate statistics in historical simulations, assuming they will continue to perform well in the future. However, the performance of GCMs varies over time in ways that are not sensitive to their historical performance, indicating that GCMs’ selection needs to consider historical simulation and future projection information. We propose a framework to account for future GCM projection convergence to and divergence from the ensemble mean, along with historical performance, to select the GCMs that are applicable to a particular regional climate impact study. The framework uses Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) with 30 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) GCMs to select GCMs based on the ensemble mean and variability of projections. We demonstrate the framework using three climate indices (annual maximum precipitation, annual total precipitation, and wet day precipitation intensity) in the Chesapeake Bay watershed of the United States. Our analysis shows that using only the GCM performance during the historical period could result in the selection of GCMs that are extreme outliers due to an inherent underprediction of precipitation extremes by all GCMs and requires an efficient bias correction before selection. There was also no significant correlation between the historical period performance of GCMs and future GCM convergence for more than 95% of the cases in the study region. This highlights the need to consider convergence and divergence information from climate projections when selecting GCMs for practical and computationally intensive applications. The proposed framework can be adapted to any study region and can help identify GCMs for computationally intensive climate change impact studies.
Introduction
Climate change (CC) is a global public health issue, and the role of health professionals in addressing its impact is crucial. However, to what extent health professionals are prepared to deal with CC-related health problems is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of health students about the CC.
Methods
We conducted a scoping review through systematic searches in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Proquest, and EBSCO. We included original scientific research with no language or time restrictions. Two authors independently reviewed and decided on the eligibility of the studies, then performed data extraction.
Results
21 studies were included, with a total of 9205 undergraduate nursing, medical, pharmacy, and public health students mainly. Most health science students (> 75%) recognized human activities as the main cause of CC. However, they perceived a lack of knowledge on how to address CC. Moreover, we found inadequate coverage or limited development of CC in related curricula that may contribute to incomplete learning or low confidence in the theoretical and practical concepts of students.
Conclusion
The findings of our scoping review suggest that while health sciences students possess a general understanding of CC, there is a significant gap in their knowledge regarding its specific health impacts. To address this gap, there is a need for targeted education and training for future health care professionals that emphasizes the health effects of CC.
Offshore wind power generation is projected to increase 15-fold over the next two
decades. This generation is, however, weather dependent. The compounding of the
anthropogenic climate change signal with high spatial and temporal wind variability can lead to large uncertainties in the projected impacts of climate change on wind resources, and further down the line in the economics of a project. In this study, we showcase a methodology to analyze the impact of climate change on the economic indicators of an offshore wind farm project. Projections of changes in wind resources are obtained using an ensemble of statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) for different emission scenarios and time periods. A series of assumptions about the features of a representative wind farm and its key economic parameters are made to compute two economic indicators: the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The IRR is an estimate of the profitability of potential investments and the LCOE is the cost over the lifetime of an investment compared to the expected energy production. We find that the effect of changes of resource on IRR and LCOE depends on the region, emissions scenario, and projection period. In general, and conditioned on the assumptions underlying this study, impacts on IRR are more significant -i.e., with differences between -0.5% and -1% in Brazil- than on LCOE. We conclude that it is especially important to take into account climate change when making investment decisions based on a project’s expected profitability.
This study explores the role of stakeholder engagement in enhancing supply chain sustainability within the renewable energy sector. Through a qualitative research approach, including in-depth interviews with key stakeholders such as government agencies, industry associations, renewable energy companies, community groups, and environmental organizations, the research reveals the complexity and significance of effective stakeholder engagement. Stakeholders highlighted diverse motivations, including environmental, social, economic, and regulatory concerns, driving their participation. The study underscores the importance of tailored engagement strategies that recognize stakeholder heterogeneity and address specific needs and expectations. Collaborative approaches, such as public-private partnerships and multi-stakeholder initiatives, were identified as crucial for pooling resources, sharing knowledge, and addressing common challenges. However, challenges related to power imbalances, conflicting interests, and communication barriers were also noted. Government policies and regulatory frameworks were found to play a pivotal role in shaping stakeholder engagement practices and sustainability outcomes. Regulatory uncertainty and inconsistency were cited as significant concerns that could undermine sustainability initiatives. Community engagement emerged as a critical factor, with local communities often directly impacted by renewable energy projects. Meaningful engagement, including consultation and benefit-sharing mechanisms, is essential for building trust and securing social acceptance. Emotional intelligence and marketing strategies were recognized as important tools for effective stakeholder engagement, emphasizing the role of empathy, active listening, and clear communication. The findings of this study highlight the need for a holistic and integrated approach to stakeholder engagement and supply chain sustainability in the renewable energy sector. By addressing diverse stakeholder needs, fostering collaboration, and aligning policies with sustainability goals, stakeholders can work together to accelerate the transition towards a more sustainable energy future.
The need to develop and provide integrated observation systems to better understand and manage global and regional environmental change is one of the major challenges facing Earth system science today. In 2008, the German Helmholtz Association took up this challenge and launched the German research infrastructure TERrestrial ENvironmental Observatories (TERENO). The aim of TERENO is the establishment and maintenance of a network of observatories as a basis for an interdisciplinary and long‐term research program to investigate the effects of global environmental change on terrestrial ecosystems and their socio‐economic consequences. State‐of‐the‐art methods from the field of environmental monitoring, geophysics, remote sensing, and modeling are used to record and analyze states and fluxes in different environmental disciplines from groundwater through the vadose zone, surface water, and biosphere, up to the lower atmosphere. Over the past 15 years we have collectively gained experience in operating a long‐term observing network, thereby overcoming unexpected operational and institutional challenges, exceeding expectations, and facilitating new research. Today, the TERENO network is a key pillar for environmental modeling and forecasting in Germany, an information hub for practitioners and policy stakeholders in agriculture, forestry, and water management at regional to national levels, a nucleus for international collaboration, academic training and scientific outreach, an important anchor for large‐scale experiments, and a trigger for methodological innovation and technological progress. This article describes TERENO's key services and functions, presents the main lessons learned from this 15‐year effort, and emphasizes the need to continue long‐term integrated environmental monitoring programmes in the future.
Aim
To achieve consensus on the knowledge and skills that undergraduate/pre‐licensure nursing students require to steward healthcare towards a more sustainable future.
Design
A two‐phase real‐time Delphi study.
Methods
Phase 1 included the generation of Planetary Health, climate change and sustainability knowledge and skill statements based on a review of relevant literature. Phase 2 consisted of a real‐time Delphi survey designed to seek consensus on the proposed statements from a panel of 42 international experts.
Results
Of the 49 survey statements, 44 (90%) achieved ≥75% consensus and 26 (53%) achieved ≥80% consensus. Three were removed and 32 were modified to improve clarity of language.
Conclusion
The knowledge and skills statements that emerged through this Delphi study can serve as a guide for incorporating Planetary Health, climate change and sustainability into nursing education programs.
Implications for the Profession
Incorporating Planetary Health and climate change education into nursing programs has the potential to produce more environmentally conscious and socially responsible nurses.
Impact
The absence of consensus on the essential knowledge and skills expected of nursing students has hindered the advancement of curricula and impacted educators' confidence in teaching Planetary Health and climate change. This study has resulted in a meticulously crafted framework of knowledge and skill statements that will be beneficial to educators, the future nursing workforce, and, ultimately, the individuals and communities whom nurses serve.
Reporting Method
This paper adheres to the Conducting and REporting DElphi Studies (CREDES) reporting guideline.
Patient or Public Contribution
No patient or public contribution.
The early 2020s have illuminated how rising temperatures and intensified weather extremes can affect many different areas of life, thus costing us a lot—immaterial costs and actual money. This is just a preview of a world in which global mean temperature could be 3 degrees higher than in pre-industrial times and in which weather extremes would be even more frequent and intense. But what is the total economic impact of climate change? How can it be separated from that of other crises and events? What are plausible effects in different sectors, how do they interact and how do they affect macroeconomic growth in the short- and long-run? In this chapter, we shed light on these questions. Based on the current state of science, we present and discuss various transmission channels from the physical impacts of climate change to the economy, including potential interaction effects, and outline possible consequences and risks for the economy as a whole. A guiding question for these discussions is how future damages can credibly be estimated.
The United Nations has reported that the world is off track to achieve water sustainability and this has been exacerbated by climate change. Studies indicate that water-related sustainable development goals (SDGs) have significant synergies and trade-offs involving various sectors. We measure the synergies and trade-offs between climate actions (mitigation and adaptation) and five water-related SDG targets based on a global numerical simulation driven by climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. We found that synergies outweigh trade-offs in all regions regarding water-related targets, with an approximately five-fold difference in the globally affected population. The main trade-off source is increased water use due to economic development in Africa and Central/South America, and increased irrigation water if bio-energy crop production is enhanced in Africa, suggesting that more coordinated policy-making is needed between climate action and water management.
This research article describes Chile’s climate change adaptation policies and plans for marine aquaculture in Chile, with a focus on the nationally important salmon farming industry, and assesses whether they have adequately addressed legal barriers to adaptation and the need for legal transformation. The article first outlines Chile’s climate change law, policies, and institutional framework, as reflected in the 2022 Framework Act on Climate Change, the 2020 updated Nationally Determined Contribution, the 2022 Strengthening of the Nationally Determined Contribution, and the 2022 Long-Term Climate Strategy. The article highlights the special attention given to the ocean-climate nexus in both international and national policy agendas. It then summarizes and assesses the adaptation policies and plans for the aquaculture sector. Three main shortcomings are identified: the lack of implementation of committed activities, the lack of a strategic vision for the role of aquaculture in a changing climate and oceans, and the lack of attention to the limits of adaptation resulting from existing regulatory frameworks. The article then strengthens this assessment with a legal analysis of the adaptive capacity of aquaculture planning and leasing frameworks. This assessment concludes that mainstreaming climate change into existing planning instruments is an ineffective adaptation measure due to the fragmented, rigid, and inefficient legal framework for the planning of aquaculture and other uses of the coastal zone. In turn, the leasing system is too rigid to allow for effective adaptation. Various mechanisms to introduce flexibility are suggested. The article concludes by highlighting an unprecedented window of opportunity to advance strategic, coherent, long-term, and transformative adaptation, resulting from concurrent initiatives to reform or update aquaculture law, policy, and adaptation planning and the principled approach to climate action embedded in the Framework Act on Climate Change.
Six planetary boundaries have already been exceeded, including climate change, loss of biodiversity, chemical pollution, and land-system change. The health research sector contributes to the environmental crisis we are facing, though to a lesser extent than healthcare or agriculture sectors. It could take steps to reduce its environmental impact but generally has not done so, even as the planetary emergency worsens. So far, the normative case for why the health research sector should rectify that failure has not been made. This paper argues strong philosophical grounds, derived from theories of health and social justice, exist to support the claim that the sector has a duty to avoid or minimise causing or contributing to ecological harms that threaten human health or worsen health inequity. The paper next develops ideas about the duty’s content, explaining why it should entail more than reducing carbon emissions, and considers what limits might be placed on the duty.
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