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Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment
Abstract
The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It considers in situ and remote observations; paleoclimate information; understanding of climate drivers and physical, chemical, and biological processes and feedbacks; global and regional climate modelling; advances in methods of analyses; and insights from climate services. It assesses the current state of the climate; human influence on climate in all regions; future climate change including sea level rise; global warming effects including extremes; climate information for risk assessment and regional adaptation; limiting climate change by reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions and reducing other greenhouse gas emissions; and benefits for air quality. The report serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with the latest policy-relevant information on climate change. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
... The evidence acknowledged that land management practices can either compound or ameliorate climate-driven changes in fire risk, but that this alone does not explain recent increases in wildfire extent or severity. Similarly, the sixth assessment report (AR6 WGI) 49 assessed with high confidence that future extreme fire weather will become more frequent at higher levels of warming, and with medium confidence that weather conditions promoting wildfires were more probable in some regions (southern Europe, northern Eurasia, western northern America, Australia) 49,50 . Confidence in this was limited due to the complexity of quantifying trends across different land cover and vegetation types 49 . ...
... Confidence in this was limited due to the complexity of quantifying trends across different land cover and vegetation types 49 . AR6 also assessed that climate change was responsible for changing fire weather conditions in Western North America and Southeastern Australia 50 , as was noted in the ScienceBrief Review. Many of the papers cited by AR6 were also cited in the ScienceBrief Review on wildfires. ...
The growing number of scientific publications on climate change has outstripped the capacity of individuals to keep up with the literature, even when confined to selected sub-topics such as chapter sections of IPCC reports. The IPCC would benefit from the assistance of modern technology, the engagement and insights of a far larger pool of experts, and more frequent updates. Here we describe how technology can be tailored to provide asynchronous and connected platforms that can enhance expert’s collaborations through their potential for scalability and inclusivity, and help keep assessments up-to-date. We detail our experience with the ScienceBrief.org platform, which was developed and used during 2017–2021. We show that the timely release of short scientific briefs (e.g. on wildfires), made possible by the platform, led to broad and accurate coverage of science in mainstream and social media, including policy-oriented websites, and therefore served to broaden public exposure and understanding of science, and counter climate misinformation. While a good visual interface and user flow were necessary, incentives were key for expert’s engagement with the platform, which, while positive, remained low. We suggest that a collaborative technology platform like ScienceBrief, tailored to support a modernised process of elaborating IPCC reports, could greatly enhance IPCC assessments by making them more open and accessible, further increasing transparency. It would also enable the comprehensive inclusion of evidence and facilitate broad and high-quality scientific engagement, including from early careers and scientists from around the world. This could first be tested at the scoping stage.
... This situation results in damage to the structure and, importantly, in inconvenience and danger to road users. In addition to this, projections show that in South Africa, climate change may cause a tendency towards an increase in the intensity of rainfall or of extreme events (Mambo et al. [2]; Engelbrecht et al. [3]; Ranasinghe et al. [4]; Otto et al. [5]; McBride et al. [6]; Kruger et al. [7]). Such extreme rainfall events may, over time, cause the original design capacities of installed culverts to become insufficient. ...
With renewed interest in the optimisation of the hydraulic performance of new and existing culverts, particularly relevant to South Africa’s evolving road network and anticipated climate-induced rainfall changes, this research investigated the benefit of angled wingwall and headwall combinations and considered the installation of a ventilation device in order to improve culvert performances. Through experimental modelling at the University of Pretoria Water Laboratory, the angled wingwall and headwall combinations demonstrated significant flow improvements compared to square inlets. It was also demonstrated that a ventilation device could cause flow through culverts to flow under inlet control conditions where it would otherwise have flowed under outlet control conditions. Additionally, the study proposes design coefficient adjustments for square inlet culverts operating under inlet control conditions. The proposed improvements can be applied during design stages, but the findings also propose prefabricated inlet elements as cost-effective solutions for existing culverts, thereby facilitating quick upgrades without the need for lengthy road closures while potentially enabling benefits for pedestrian traffic. Ultimately, this study underscores the potential of innovative and novel design modifications to enhance culvert performance, offering sustainable and economical alternatives to conventional replacement practices while advancing hydraulic engineering resilience in response to evolving infrastructural and environmental demands.
... This means that the current SLR rate will continue to increase, eventually outpacing the oyster reef growth rate identified here. However, these local SLR projections may be underestimated due to the potential partial representation of land subsidence (IPCC, 2023). For the next 80 years, the reef top could increase by 26 ± 286 cm and potentially keep pace with the SLR under favourable conditions, such as under SSP1-2.6, ...
This study aims to quantify the dimensions of an oyster reef over two years via low-cost unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) monitoring and to examine the seasonal volumetric changes. No current study investigated via UAV monitoring the seasonal changes of the reef-building Pacific oyster (Magallana gigas) in the German Wadden Sea, considering the uncertainty of measurements and processing. Previous studies have concentrated on classifying and mapping smaller oyster reefs using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) or hyperspectral remote sensing data recorded by UAVs or satellites. This study employed a consumer-grade UAV with a low spectral resolution to semi-annually record the reef dimensions for generating digital elevation models (DEM) and orthomosaics via structure from motion (SfM), enabling identifying oysters. The machine learning algorithm Random Forest (RF) proved to be an accurate classifier to identify oysters in low-spectral UAV data. Based on the classified data, the reef was spatially analysed, and digital elevation models of difference (DoDs) were used to estimate the volumetric changes. The introduction of propagation errors supported determining the uncertainty of the vertical and volumetric changes with a confidence level of 68% and 95%, highlighting the significant change detection. The results indicate a volume increase of 22 m³ and a loss of 2 m³ in the study period, considering a confidence level of 95%. In particular, the reef lost an area between September 2020 and March 2021, when the reef was exposed to air for more than ten hours. The reef top elevation increased from-15.5 ± 3.6 cm NHN in March 2020 to-14.8 ± 3.9 cm NHN in March 2022, but the study could not determine a consistent annual growth rate. As long as the environmental and hydrodynamic conditions are given, the reef is expected to continue growing on higher elevations of tidal flats, only limited by air exposure. The growth rates suggest a further reef expansion, resulting in an increased roughness surface area that contributes to flow damping and altering Frontiers in Marine Science sedimentation processes. Further studies are proposed to investigate the volumetric changes and limiting stressors, providing robust evidence regarding the influence of air exposure on reef loss.
... All RAMIP experiments are based on the plausible future changes in regional anthropogenic aerosol emissions represented within the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) used in ScenarioMIP and AR6 (O'Neill et al., 2016;Rao et al., 2017;Riahi et al., 2017). The SSPs explore a wide range of global aerosol emission trajectories, from rapid decreases in emissions of carbonaceous aerosol and sulfur dioxide in SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 to continued increases in emissions until the mid-21st century in SSP3-7.0 ...
Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature , precipitation, and other climate characteristics and have been one of the dominant drivers of decadal trends in Asian and African precipitation. These and other influences on regional climate from changes in aerosol emissions are expected to continue and potentially strengthen in the coming decades. However, a combination of large uncertainties in emission pathways, radiative forcing, and the dynamical response to forcing makes anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in the spread of near-term climate projections, particularly on regional scales, and therefore an important one to constrain. For example, in terms of future emission pathways, the uncertainty in future global aerosol and precursor gas emissions by 2050 is as large as the total increase in emissions since 1850. In terms of aerosol effective radiative forcing, which remains the largest source of uncertainty in future climate change projections, CMIP6 models span a factor of 5, from −0.3 to −1.5 W m −2. Both of these sources of uncertainty are exacerbated on regional scales. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) will deliver experiments designed to quantify the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term projections. This is unlike any prior MIP, where the focus has been on changes in global emissions and/or very idealised aerosol experiments. Perturbing regional emissions makes RAMIP novel from a scientific standpoint and links the intended analyses more directly to mitigation and adaptation policy issues. From a science perspective, there is limited information on how realistic regional aerosol emissions impact local as well as remote climate conditions. Here, RAMIP will enable an evaluation of the full range of potential influences of realistic and regionally varied aerosol emission changes on near-future climate. From the policy perspective, RAMIP addresses the burning question of how local and remote decisions affecting emissions of aerosols influence climate change in any given region. Here, RAMIP will provide the information needed to make direct links between regional climate policies and regional climate change. RAMIP experiments are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location and provide improved con-Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 4452 L. J. Wilcox et al.: The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) straints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments will assess the effects of differences in future global and regional (Africa and the Middle East, East Asia, North America and Europe, and South Asia) aerosol emission trajectories through 2051, while optional experiments will test the nonlinear effects of varying emission locations and aerosol types along this future trajectory. All experiments are based on the shared socioeconomic pathways and are intended to be performed with 6th Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6) generation models, initialised from the CMIP6 historical experiments, to facilitate comparisons with existing projections. Requested outputs will enable the analysis of the role of aerosol in near-future changes in, for example, temperature and precipitation means and extremes , storms, and air quality.
Fuelled by climate change, low flows, heavy rain and flooding likely intensify in the future, adding to the pressures experienced by rivers in Western and Central Europe in recent decades. To meet these challenges, comprehensive water-related adaptation to climate change is indispensable. Based on the case study of the Spree River basin in Germany, this study analysed legally defined plans for water management, spatial and landscape planning for their current status of integrated climate change adaptation. To pre-structure the document analysis, eight water management fields of action for adaptation to climate change were identified using official recommendations for action. 39 % of the 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adapting to climate change. Of these, 55 % address the diverse impacts of climate change in a more comprehensive way, including prevention and mitigation of droughts and floods, and protection of water ecosystems and groundwater resources. Filling these planning gaps may include more frequent updating of plans, greater focus on evidence from informal plans, multifunctional measures, and adaptation of best practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation. Planning and implementing comprehensive climate change adaptation will strengthen the resilience of ecosystems and secure human livelihoods.
This study aimed to analyze data from meteorological stations in central Ukraine that have the longest observation period and to search for patterns in the dynamics of temperature indicators over the past 140-200 years. Data and methods. To characterize the climate of central Ukraine, we analyzed the average monthly and average annual temperatures of Uman, Kropyvnytskyi, and Poltava, which have the longest continuous or almost continuous periods of observation. Based on these data, we have constructed graphs of changes in the average annual and average monthly temperatures for the winter and spring seasons. To analyze the dynamics of temperature indicators, we built linear and 11-year moving averages. The results. The analysis of meteorological data from weather stations in central Ukraine over the entire period of observation showed the following: average annual temperatures increased from 1.4 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 1.6 degrees in Uman to 2.5 degrees (since 1886 - 2.2 degrees) in Poltava. The highest average annual air temperatures at all weather stations were recorded in 2020 and 2021. The largest temperature increase occurred in the winter months. Over the entire observation period, the average monthly temperature in December increased by 2.0 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 2.3 degrees in Uman, and 3.6 degrees in Poltava (3.3 degrees since 1886). The average monthly temperature in January increased from 2.4 degrees in Uman and Kropyvnytskyi to 4.9 degrees (3.5 degrees since 1886) in Poltava. The average monthly temperature in February increased from 2.2 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 3.4 degrees in Uman to 4.1 degrees (since 1886 - 2.9 degrees) in Poltava. All three weather stations have common periods of rising and falling temperatures, with an increase in the average monthly temperature in the winter months from 1987-1989 to 2022. The air temperature in the spring months also increased significantly. Over the entire observation period, the average monthly temperature in March increased from 2.3 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 3.0 degrees in Uman to 3.6 degrees (since 1886 - 3.5 degrees) in Poltava. The average monthly temperature in April increased from 2.1 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 2.4 degrees in Uman to 4.2 degrees (since 1886 - 3.4 degrees) in Poltava. The average monthly temperature in May increased from 0.5 degrees in Uman and Kropyvnytskyi to 2.9 degrees (since 1886 - 1.3 degrees) in Poltava. All three weather stations have common periods of rising and falling temperatures, with a slight increase in average monthly spring temperatures from 1988-1990 to 2022. Analyzing the graphs of 11-year moving averages, one can notice the presence of periods of increase and decrease in average monthly temperatures lasting about 33 years or doubled periods lasting about 66 years. Scientific novelty. For the first time, the data of weather stations in central Ukraine for the entire period of observation (138 years – Uman, 148 years – Kropyvnytskyi, 198 years – Poltava) were analyzed and regularities in the dynamic of temperature indicators were determined. The practical significance lies in the possibility of using the researchers results to predict future climate change.
The 2021 summer flooding was an extremely rare event, driven by precipitation extremes that exceed Dutch design levels for flood protection of relatively small rivers and waterways. However, similar events in neighboring locations cannot be ruled out in the near future. The implications of such extreme rainfall amounts will vary by region, subject to local topography, water systems, and societal exposure. We explore the diversity of potential flood impacts induced by a similar event by constructing impact-oriented event storylines for characteristic water management regions in the Netherlands. The plausibility of the storylines is underlined by using physical evidence, proven impact-modelling concepts, and expert judgment successfully assessing the (sometimes unexpected) outcomes. The approach supports impact assessment and risk management of extraordinary rainfall and flood events. The outcomes show the relevance for crisis management and spatial policies, and confirms the need for in depth-analysis to assess concrete adaptation options
Large-scale disasters and shocks are becoming increasingly frequent, protracted and complex. Social protection system is a potentially effective mechanism in reducing the impacts of these risks on vulnerable households and to build their resilience. The need for social protection for migrants during crisis came into sharp focus during the COVID - 19 pandemic. The study used in-depth desk review from secondary sources complemented with key informant interviews from four countries - Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Somalia. The findings show that IGAD Member States with less - developed social protection systems such as Somalia were poorly prepared and struggled to launch rapid and effective social protection responses to COVID - triggered hardship to cover migrants. Unlike non-migrants who were registered as additional beneficiaries on national cash transfer programmes, many migrants lacked similar social protection in the duration of lockdown. In view of complex future shocks in the context of a changing climate, states are strongly encouraged to strengthen their social protection measures to be shock-responsive by reforming their laws, strengthening collaboration, develop data sharing protocols and information management system and linkages to early warning systems to trigger swift transfer of resources in the event of a crisis. This study offers lessons that will inform future inclusive policy responses on social protection for migrants during crises.
This study investigates the potential relevance, usefulness, and usability of climate change projections for Swedish agricultural planning and management. Although research indicates the importance of specific users acting as knowledge brokers for climate information, there are knowledge gaps concerning agricultural extension officers’ use of climate information. Through a survey and stakeholder workshops, perspectives of Swedish agricultural extension officers on climate change projections were collected. The results provide insights into “what” information in climate change projections that is relevant and “how” climate information may be pre- sented and used. Based on the analysis of the workshop dialogues, four themes outlining the “what” and “how” were identified: (i) a need for additional climate indicators for Swedish agriculture, (ii) the criticalness of temporal precision, (iii) trade-offs between providing precision and an overview, and (iv) a relevance – usability contradiction. These results inform the basis for ongoing research and practical applications focused on agri- culturally tailored climate information, as well as the broader development of climate service methodology. The study reveals a latent demand for climate change projections among respondents, indicating a perceived rele- vance of information on future climates, but limited current use and usability among agricultural extension officers. The requisite for tailored climate indicators is clear – in this case, for Swedish agricultural planning and management – but critical usability challenges need to be addressed to move from providing relevant infor- mation to achieving actual usage that can enhance the climate resilience in Swedish agriculture.
Background
Global warming and climate change are threats to the world. Warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns alter water availability and increase the occurrence of extreme weather events. South America and the Andes are vulnerable regions to climate change due to inequity and the uneven distribution of resources. Climate change evaluation often relies on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, the spatial resolution is too coarse and does not provide a realistic climate representation at a local level. This is of particular importance in mountain areas such as the Andes range, where the heterogeneous topography requires a finer spatial resolution to represent the local physical processes. To this end, statistical and/or dynamical downscaling methods are required. Several approaches and applications of downscaling procedures have been carried out in the countries of this region, with different purposes and performances. However, the main objective is to improve the representation of meteorological variables such as precipitation and temperature. A systematic review of these downscaling applications will identify the performance of the methods applied in the Andes region for the downscaling of precipitation and temperature. In addition, the meta-analysis could detect factors influencing the performance. The overall goal is to highlight promising methods in terms of fitness for use and identify knowledge gaps in the region.
Methods
The review will search and examine published and grey literature on downscaling applications of temperature and precipitation in the Andes region. Predetermined criteria for eligibility will allow the screening of the evidence. Then, the method used in each application will be coded and mapped according to the country, purpose, variable, and type of downscaling. At the same time, quantitative and qualitative data will be extracted. The performance metrics are particularly interesting for this review. A meta-analysis will be conducted for those studies with comparable metrics. A narrative synthesis, maps and heatmaps will show the results. Tables, funnel plots, and meta-regressions will present the meta-analysis. Throughout the review, a critical appraisal step will categorize the validity of the evidence.
In order to effectively model the potential impacts of future climate change, there is a requirement for climate data inputs which (a) are of high spatial and temporal resolution, (b) explore a range of future climate change scenarios, (c) are consistent with historical observations in the historical period, and (d) provide an exploration of climate model uncertainty. This paper presents a suite of climate projections for the United Kingdom that conform to these requirements: CHESS-SCAPE. CHESS-SCAPE is a 1 km resolution dataset containing 11 near-surface meteorological variables that can be used to as input to many different impact models. The variables are available at several time resolutions, from daily to decadal means, for the years 1980–2080. It was derived from the state-of-the art regional climate projections in the United Kingdom Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) regional climate model (RCM) 12 km ensemble, downscaled to 1 km using a combination of physical and empirical methods to account for local topographic effects. CHESS-SCAPE has four ensemble members, which were chosen to span the range of temperature and precipitation change in the UKCP18 ensemble, representing the ensemble climate model uncertainty. CHESS-SCAPE consists of projections for four emissions scenarios, given by the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5, which were derived from the UKCP18 RCM RCP8.5 scenarios using time shifting and pattern scaling. These correspond to UK annual warming projections of between 0.9–1.9 K for RCP2.6 up to 2.8–4.3 K for RCP8.5 between 1980–2000 and 2060–2080. Little change in annual precipitation is projected, but larger changes in seasonal precipitation are seen with some scenarios projecting large increases in precipitation in the winter (up to 22 %) and large decreases in the summer (up to −39 %). All four RCP scenarios and ensemble members are also provided with bias correction, using the CHESS-met historical gridded dataset as a baseline. With high spatial and temporal resolution, an extensive range of warming scenarios and multiple ensemble members, CHESS-SCAPE provides a comprehensive data resource for modellers of climate change impacts in the UK. The CHESS-SCAPE data are available for download from the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis: https://doi.org/10.5285/8194b416cbee482b89e0dfbe17c5786c (Robinson et al., 2022).
The effect of climate change on rockfalls in the German low mountain regions is investigated following two different approaches. The first approach uses a logistic regression model that describes the combined effect of precipitation, freeze–thaw cycles, and fissure water on rockfall probability. The climate change signal for the past 6 decades is analysed by applying the model to meteorological observations. The possible effect of climate change until the end of the century is explored by applying the statistical model to the output of a multi-model ensemble of 23 regional climate scenario simulations. It is found that the number of days per year exhibiting an above-average probability for rockfalls has mostly been decreasing during the last few decades. Statistical significance is, however, present at only a few sites. A robust and statistically significant decrease can be seen in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations for Germany and neighbouring regions, locally falling below −10 % when comparing the last 30 years of the 20th century to the last 30 years of the 21st century. The most important factor determining the projected decrease in rockfall probability is a reduction in the number of freeze–thaw cycles expected under future climate conditions.
For the second approach four large-scale meteorological patterns that are associated with enhanced rockfall probability are identified from reanalysis data. The frequency of all four patterns exhibits a seasonal cycle that maximises in the cold half of the year (winter and spring). Trends in the number of days that can be assigned to these patterns are determined both in meteorological reanalysis data and in climate simulations. In the reanalysis no statistically significant trend is found. For the future scenario simulations all climate models show a statistically significant decrease in the number of rockfall-promoting weather situations.
The Antarctic environment is extremely cold, windy and dry. Ozone depletion has resulted in increasing ultraviolet-B radiation, and increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing stratospheric ozone have altered Antarctica’s climate. How do mosses thrive photosynthetically in this harsh environment? Antarctic mosses take advantage of microclimates where the combination of protection from wind, sufficient melt water, nutrients from seabirds and optimal sunlight provides both photosynthetic energy and sufficient warmth for efficient metabolism. The amount of sunlight presents a challenge: more light creates warmer canopies which are optimal for photosynthetic enzymes but can contain excess light energy that could damage the photochemical apparatus. Antarctic mosses thus exhibit strong photoprotective potential in the form of xanthophyll cycle pigments. Conversion to zeaxanthin is high when conditions are most extreme, especially when water content is low. Antarctic mosses also produce UV screening compounds which are maintained in cell walls in some species and appear to protect from DNA damage under elevated UV-B radiation. These plants thus survive in one of the harshest places on Earth by taking advantage of the best real estate to optimise their metabolism. But survival is precarious and it remains to be seen if these strategies will still work as the Antarctic climate changes.
The frequency and intensity of extreme heat in the environment have increased in the last decade. Extreme heating events (EHE) have wide-ranging impacts on biological systems from the molecular to the community level. However, the impacts of EHE have been poorly studied in pathogen–host systems. Here, we explore how EHE affects the interaction among the insect hosts, Osmia cornifrons and Osmia lignaria, and a protozoan pathogen, Crithidia mellificae. We compared changes in the upper limit for locomotion of hosts (Ctmax), thermal boldness (voluntary exposure to Extreme Temperature Zones – ETZ) between healthy and infected host exposed to EHE, and the effect of host Ctmax on pathogen growth rate. Our results showed that 1-day EHE significantly reduced the upper limit for locomotion of hosts by an average of 4 °C in healthy and 7 °C in infected hosts. Further, EHE significantly reduced the protozoan pathogen growth rate. EHE also reduced the hosts’ voluntary exposure to (or transit across) extreme (hot or cold) temperature zones (ETZ). Our results show that EHE reduces both hosts’ heat tolerance and pathogen fitness, and shed light on the implications of EHE on host–pathogen dynamics under warmer world.
Gossypium thurberi, a threatened wild cotton species native to northern Mexico and southwestern USA, is globally important because its agronomic traits can be introgressed into cultivated species to improve fiber quality and resistance to biotic and abiotic stressors. However, studies on the current and future potential distribution of the species are scarce. The objectives of this study were (1) to develop a distribution model of G thurberi using a Geographic Information System platform, (2) determine environmental factors that influence the current distribution of the species in Mexico, and (3) estimate the potential distribution of the species under current and future climates. We analyzed the following variables: Annual Available Soil Water (mm year−1, AASW), Flowering Growing Degree Days (FGDD), absolute minimum temperature (°C, Tminabs), and altitude (amsl, ALT). Results showed that the current potential distribution of G. thurberi in northern Mexico, estimated at 112,727 square kilometers, is projected to be drastically reduced by 77 and 86%, considering a possible increase in temperature of 1.5 °C and 2 °C in near-future (2021–2040) and mid-future (2041–2060) climates, respectively, and a 100 mm reduction in average annual precipitation under both climates. The greatest reduction will be in areas in Sonora (Mexico) adjoining Arizona (USA), where the largest populations of the species are currently reported. AASW, FGDD, and ALT jointly influence the distribution of G. thurberi, with AASW as the dominant factor under future climate change. The areas that may continue to harbor populations of G. thurberi under future climate will present AASW of 0.2–55.6 mm year−1, FGDD of 242–547, and ALT between 550 and 1561 amsl. The projected future potential distribution in the country includes new suitable areas, including one in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, that may serve as refuge areas. The findings can contribute to the design of more precise collection efforts and conservation strategies to prevent species extinction.
South of 15°S, southern Africa has a subtropical climate, which is affected by temperate and tropical weather systems and comes under the influence of the Southern Hemisphere high-pressure systems. Most rainfall occurs in austral summer, but the southwest experiences winter rainfall. Much of the precipitation in summer is of convective origin forced by large-scale dynamics. There is a marked diurnal cycle in rainfall in summer. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences interannual rainfall variability. In austral summer, drought tends to occur during El Niño, while above-normal rainfall conditions tend to follow La Niña. During El Niño, higher than normal atmospheric pressure anomalies, detrimental to rainfall, occur due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation. This also weakens the moisture transport from the Indian Ocean to the continent. The opposite mechanisms happen during La Niña. On top of the variability related to ENSO, the Pacific Ocean also influences the decadal variability of rainfall. Additionally, the Angola Current, the Agulhas Current, the Mozambique Channel and the southwest Indian Ocean affect rainfall variability. Over the last 40 to 60 years, near-surface temperatures have increased over almost the whole region, summer precipitation has increased south of 10°S, and winter precipitation has mostly decreased in South Africa. Meanwhile, the Agulhas Current and the Angola Current have warmed, and the Benguela Current has cooled.
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