Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate's scientific contributions
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Publications (38)
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and other U.S. science research agencies operate a fleet of research aircraft and other airborne platforms that offer diverse capabilities. To inform NASA's future investments in airborne platforms, this study examines whether a large aircraft that would replace the current NASA DC-8 is neede...
The second "State of the Climate Cycle Report" (SOCCR2) aims to elucidate the fundamental physical, chemical, and biological aspects of the carbon cycle and to discuss the challenges of accounting for all major carbon stocks and flows for the North American continent. This assessment report has broad value, as understanding the carbon cycle is not...
The ocean is an integral component of the Earth’s climate system. It covers about 70% of the Earth’s surface and acts as its primary reservoir of heat and carbon, absorbing over 90% of the surplus heat and about 30% of the carbon dioxide associated with human activities, and receiving close to 100% of fresh water lost from land ice. With the accumu...
The United States' tradition of conserving fish, wildlife, habitats, and cultural resources dates to the mid-19th century. States have long sought to manage fish and wildlife species within their borders, whereas many early federal conservation efforts focused on setting aside specific places as parks, sanctuaries, or reserves. With advances in lan...
The United States faces numerous, varied, and evolving threats to national security, including terrorism, scarcity and disruption of food and water supplies, extreme weather events, and regional conflicts around the world. Effectively managing these threats requires intelligence that not only assesses what is happening now, but that also anticipate...
The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a collection of 13 Federal entities charged by law to assist the United States and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change. As the understanding of global change has evolved over the past decades and as demand for scientific infor...
The U.S. National Climate Assessment identified a number of ways in which climate change is affecting, and is likely to affect, people, infrastructure, natural resources, and ecosystems. Those impacts, in turn, are increasingly having important current and potential future consequences for human health. There is a need to probe more deeply into how...
The growing problem of changing environmental conditions caused by climate destabilization is well recognized as one of the defining issues of our time. The root problem is greenhouse gas emissions, and the fundamental solution is curbing those emissions. Climate geoengineering has often been considered to be a "last-ditch" response to climate chan...
The signals are everywhere that our planet is experiencing significant climate change. It is clear that we need to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from our atmosphere if we want to avoid greatly increased risk of damage from climate change. Aggressively pursuing a program of emissions abatement or mitigation will s...
Review of the National Science Foundation's Division on Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Draft Goals and Objectives Documents is a letter report by an ad hoc committee reviewing the AGS draft goals and objectives. It addresses the following questions: Are the goals and objectives clear and appropriate? Are there any content areas missing from the...
Solar irradiance is a vital source of energy input for the Earth's climate system and its variability has the potential to mitigate or exacerbate a human-created climate. Maintaining an unbroken record of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is critical in resolving ongoing debates regarding the potential role of solar variability in influencing Earth's cl...
As climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climat...
During the 1980s and 1990s, the National Weather Service (NWS) undertook a major program called the Modernization and Associated Restructuring (MAR). The MAR was officially completed in 2000. No comprehensive assessment of the execution of the MAR plan, or comparison of the promised benefits of the MAR to its actual impact, had ever been conducted....
The Modernization and Associated Restructuring (MAR) of the National Weather Service (NWS) was a large and complex re-engineering of a federal agency. The process lasted a decade and cost an estimated $4.5 billion. The result was greater integration of science into weather service activities and improved outreach and coordination with users of weat...
The U.S. government supports a large, diverse suite of activities that can be broadly characterized as "global change research." Such research offers a wide array of benefits to the nation, in terms of protecting public health and safety, enhancing economic strength and competitiveness, and protecting the natural systems upon which life depends. Th...
Climate change is occurring. It is very likely caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human activities, and poses significant risks for a range of human and natural systems. And these emissions continue to increase, which will result in further change and greater risks. America's Climate Choices makes the case that the environmental, econo...
Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely determine the evolution of Earth's climate. Because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock the Earth and future generations into a range of impacts, some of which could become very severe. Emi...
Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for--and in many cases is already affecting--a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as Ameri...
Global climate change is one of America's most significant long-term policy challenges. Human activity--especially the use of fossil fuels, industrial processes, livestock production, waste disposal, and land use change--is affecting global average temperatures, snow and ice cover, sea-level, ocean acidity, growing seasons and precipitation pattern...
Climate change, driven by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, poses serious, wide-ranging threats to human societies and natural ecosystems around the world. The largest overall source of greenhouse gas emissions is the burning of fossil fuels. The global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, the dominant gree...
More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account comple...
Recent advances in air pollution monitoring and modeling capabilities have made it possible to show that air pollution can be transported long distances and that adverse impacts of emitted pollutants cannot be confined to one country or even one continent. Pollutants from traffic, cooking stoves, and factories emitted half a world away can make the...
A National Research Council committee is conducting a study on how well greenhouse gas emissions can be measured for treaty monitoring and verification. The committee's analysis suggests that NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO), which failed on launch in February 2009, would have provided proof of concept for spaceborne technologies to monitor...
Detailed weather observations on local and regional levels are essential to a range of needs from forecasting tornadoes to making decisions that affect energy security, public health and safety, transportation, agriculture and all of our economic interests. As technological capabilities have become increasingly affordable, businesses, state and loc...
The Multifunction Phased Array Radar (MPAR) is one potentially cost-effective solution to meet the surveillance needs and of several agencies currently using decades-old radar networks. These agencies including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the...
The U.S. Climate Change Science Program is in the process of producing 21 draft assessments that investigate changes in the Earth's climate and related systems. These assessments are designed to inform decisionmakers about the scientific underpinnings of a range of environmental issues, such as models of past climate conditions. This National Resea...
Over the past 50 years, thousands of satellites have been sent into space on missions to collect data about the Earth. Today, the ability to forecast weather, climate, and natural hazards depends critically on these satellite-based observations. At the request of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Research Council conve...
The U.S. Climate Change Science Program is in the process of producing 21 draft assessments that investigate changes in the Earth's climate and related systems. These assessments are designed to inform decisionmakers about the scientific underpinnings of a range of environmental issues, such as stratospheric ozone. This National Research Council re...
Communication between scientists and decision makers has always been a challenge. The two communities use different languages and have different needs. Before scientists can convey their information, which usually appears in the peer-reviewed literature, to decision makers, it needs to be synthesized and integrated so that relevant facts can be com...
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its...
The committee reviewed draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3, Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, focusing on the extent to which the document meets the requirements set forth in its prospectus and using guidelines developed by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program in conjunction with the National Research Council. The commit...
The committee reviewed the draft Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 5.2, focusing on the extent to which the draft document meets the requirements set forth in the prospectus. The current draft was clearly written for an audience of researchers involved in assessment efforts, and it contains material that should be very useful to them: a discus...
The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and its predecessor U.S. Global Change Research Program have sponsored climate research and observations for nearly 15 years, yet the overall progress of the program has not been measured systematically. Metrics-a system of measurement that includes the item being measured, the unit of measurement, and the...
The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), established in 2002 to coordinate climate and global change research conducted in the United States and to support decision-making on climate-related issues, is producing twenty-one synthesis and assessment reports that address its research, observation, and decision-support needs. The first report, p...
Changes in climate are driven by natural and human-induced perturbations of the Earth's energy balance. These climate drivers or "forcings" include variations in greenhouse gases, aerosols, land use, and the amount of energy Earth receives from the Sun. Although climate throughout Earth's history has varied from "snowball" conditions with global ic...
In 2001, following a National Research Council (NRC)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) workshop on opportunities for NOAA�s environmental satellite program, then Space Studies Board Chair John H. McElroy sent a letter to Gregory W. Withee, Assistant Administrator for NOAA�s Satellite and Information Services, outlining three po...
The nation's network of more than 130 Next Generation Radars (NEXRADs) is used to detect wind and precipitation to help National Weather Service forecasters monitor and predict flash floods and other storms. This book assesses the performance of the Sulphur Mountain NEXRAD in Southern California, which has been scrutinized for its ability to detect...
A growing appreciation for how variations in climate affect society and the environment has increased the demand for fast and accurate predictions of climate variability. The Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program, established internationally in 1995 and expanded to include a U.S. component in 1998, focuses on improving understandi...
Citations
... In 1998, after the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) Final Rule was proposed, Congress requested an Institute of Medicine review to assess the impact of the proposed rule on transplantation. The report recommended a comprehensive set of reliable, informative and patient-centered performance measures and noted that the standards of successful performance could be raised to a higher level (2). This remains a driving factor in government oversight efforts. ...
... The consequent change in radiative forcing resulting from such an increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration can be approximated using the following equation [101]: ...
... Characterizing uncertainty is integral to projections of climate change and its impacts [16,17]. Uncertainty in climate projections stems from three major sources: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, climate model response, and internal variability [18]. ...
... Methods to monitor and characterize nocturnal bird migration have received much attention from the applied ecology and conservation communities. Acoustic monitoring presents distinct advantages over radar and human observation, especially in inaccessible and inhospi- (Hill et al., 2018) vs. $10 million WSR-88D (Council, 2008)). Furthermore, migration ...
... The importance of narrowing the focus down to the individual level is rooted in behavioral economics: how individuals make decisions and how researchers think they should make these decisions often differ. Whether through habit, custom, law or external framing, individuals tend to make decisions based on risk assessment in their daily lives and do not spend much effort to consider relevant decision frameworks for each particular situation (Council, 2011). This is also a prominent issue in the climate change context, because local scale extreme events present a combination of high stakes and low probabilities, which sets the stage for individuals to exhibit biased behavior when making adaptation decisions. ...
... Natural wind flow patterns shift pollutants into downwind countries. In Southasia, the natural winds enter from southwest, flow over India turning west to enter into Pakistan as shown in Fig. 6 [78]. ...
- Committee to Review the Draft Interagency Report on the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States
- Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
- Division on Earth and Life Studies
- Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice
- National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
... To fulfill stringent climate mitigation goals and possess a net decline of atmospheric CO 2 , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that large-scale implementation of net-negative CO 2 emissions technologies will be required by mid-century. These CO 2 removal techniques work along with low-or zero-carbon energy sources [122,123]. Bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS), or industrial-scale CO 2 sequestration from bioenergy production, can generate electricity, chemicals, and fuels while removing CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, outside of niche markets, there are few commercial installations of BECCS, establishing unpredictability about commercialization paths and scale-up impacts [124]. ...
... CDR is defined as intervention actions that remove CO 2 from the atmosphere 22 . Designing efficient and cost-effective CDR methods has been one of the primary goals in tackling climate change issues due to their potential to remove a large amount of atmospheric CO 2 . ...
... Accordingly, the relationship between global total emissions and concentration levels is analyzed and referenced in global mitigation agreements and policies. To date, 350 ppm and 450 ppm are widely discussed as the target of atmospheric concentrations for achieving the climate stabilization goal (Council, 2011). The goal of 350 ppm is far behind as global atmospheric CO 2 was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm in 2018, which is an increase of 2.5 ± 0.1 ppm from 2017, and similar to the increase of 2.2 ± 0.1 ppm between 2016 and 2017 (Blunden & Arndt, 2019). ...
... Postcombustion carbon capture CO 2 is extracted from the flue gas following the completion of combustion at power plants. The flue gas, mainly composed of nitrogen and carbon dioxide gas with small amounts of steam, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and particulate fly ash, is maintained at high temperatures of 120-180°C [25]. Toxic gases are removed from the flue gas and then purified to meet emission standards [26]. ...
Reference: Hybrid inorganic aerogels for CO2 adsorption
